OptionProbability
Other
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Jeff Bezos
Robert Caro
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
JD Vance
Terence Tao
Sarah Paine
Sam Altman
Narendra Modi
Gwern Branwen
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
roon
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Jensen Huang
Peter Thiel
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Tim Cook
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Buffett
Taylor Swift
Joe Biden
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Satoshi Nakomoto
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
pope Francis
Scott Alexander
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
21
13
12
11
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Causes Tina Peters' early release
new blockade of a country
pass 500 or more executive orders
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
resume buying oil from Russia
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Stays alive
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
ten or more protestors killed during term
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Dep
have a journalist arrested
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Enact price controls on groceries
Says 6 7 (or variant)
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon himself
Get rid of Noaa.
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
stops all sanctions on Russia
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Attack a NATO ally.
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
Prosecute someone for flag burning
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
take control of a part of greenland
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
ban trans people from holding federal offices
make statements that are negative about labubu
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Salute Putin
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
stop California from hosting the Olympics
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal age of consent
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Implement a federal abortion ban
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of the Senate
all time high unemployment reached
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
87
84
83
76
76
75
71
71
71
70
70
69
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68
66
65
63
62
62
60
57
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55
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52
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3
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
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91
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86
85
85
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80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
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69
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68
68
62
62
60
60
59
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58
58
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4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Wolves
Burnley
At least one of the 10 teams not otherwise listed
West Ham
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Brentford
Sunderland
Bournemouth
Everton
Fulham
99
98
52
42
16
3
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
TBC (Tottenham Hotspur)
Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace)
Scott Parker (Burnley)
Liam Rosenior (Chelsea)
Fabian Hurzeler (Brighton)
Pep Guardiola (Manchester City)
Nuno Espírito Santo (West Ham United)
Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth)
Keith Andrews (Brentford)
David Moyes (Everton)
Marco Silva (Fulham)
Daniel Farke (Leeds United)
Arne Slot (Liverpool)
Eddie Howe (Newcastle United)
Regis Le Bris (Sunderland)
Rob Edwards (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
TBC (Nottingham Forest)
Mikel Arteta (Arsenal)
46
14
6
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
988
950
OptionProbability
Arsenal
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Chelsea
Manchester United
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fulham
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Everton
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Crystal Palace
Ipswich Town
Brentford
West Ham United
Burnley
Leeds United
72
19
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1439
947
OptionVotes
NO
YES
149
67
OptionVotes
YES
NO
455
22
OptionVotes
NO
YES
106
94



