Papers News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Papers
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
59.04%chance
194268635
OptionVotes
5839
3348
Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?
Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM
1.05%chance
144115514
OptionVotes
50587
234
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
24.4%chance
47990058
OptionVotes
7184
5003
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
19.73%chance
807546
OptionVotes
2305
320
SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).
Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM
50%chance
364585
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will any country stop using paper currency by end 2029?
Sep 9, 9:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.09%chance
422838
OptionVotes
1140
926
Peer-reviewed paper in 2026 shows mycelial compounds effective against respiratory diseases?
Nov 12, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.82%chance
102493
OptionVotes
1388
721
Will there be a research paper that uses Manifold data and has 100 Google Scholar citations by the end of 2025?
Mar 1, 2:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.81%chance
221785
OptionVotes
1910
222
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
59.72%chance
31917
OptionVotes
1081
822
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM
65.12%chance
28746
OptionVotes
1092
763
Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?
Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.98%chance
13533
OptionVotes
1290
481
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50