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Prediction markets for Paradox
OptionProbability
42
41
7
6
4
0
Will "mitochondrial endosymbiosis" be considered the great filter in the fermi paradox in 2050?
Sep 8, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.1%chance
121333
OptionVotes
2127
470
OptionProbability
61
14
13
5
3
2
2
Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?
May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
11.77%chance
11893
OptionVotes
274
37
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
25717
OptionVotes
1078
925
Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?
Feb 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
1700
OptionVotes
100
100
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.3%chance
17686
OptionVotes
1182
554
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 30, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.67%chance
14615
OptionVotes
239
84
When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?
Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4605
Will Papayathief be convinced to one box in Newcomb’s Paradox in 2025
Feb 16, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
13%chance
5242
OptionVotes
259
39
Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.
Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35.83%chance
12105
OptionVotes
1056
965
Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?
Feb 15, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.36%chance
212
OptionVotes
112
89
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