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Prediction markets for Paradox
OptionProbability
39
29
21
7
4
0
Will "mitochondrial endosymbiosis" be considered the great filter in the fermi paradox in 2050?
Sep 8, 6:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.1%chance
121333
OptionVotes
2127
470
OptionProbability
61
14
13
5
3
2
2
When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?
Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61105
OptionProbability
28
13
13
13
13
10
8
2
Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?
May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
11.77%chance
131073
OptionVotes
274
37
Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?
Feb 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.4%chance
3798
OptionVotes
198
51
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
42.3%chance
26792
OptionVotes
1128
887
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.48%chance
17719
OptionVotes
1215
507
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.15%chance
13428
OptionVotes
402
68
Will LLMs such as GPT4 be considered a solution to Moravec’s paradox by 2030?
Aug 11, 2:22 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM
20.02%chance
8215
OptionVotes
234
114
Strong consensus among game theorists at the beginning of 2040 will be that one-boxing in Newcomb’s paradox is optimal.
Mar 25, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
35.83%chance
12105
OptionVotes
1056
965
Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?
Feb 15, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
39%chance
325
OptionVotes
125
80
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