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Parallels News

    Prediction markets for Parallels

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    22634

    4163

    What games will I enjoy playing with my partner?

    Oct 17, 12:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    8016881

    OptionProbability

    Magic: The Gathering

    Cult of the Lamb

    Death's Door

    Shift Happens

    Baba is You

    Understand

    The Witness

    Hollow Knight

    It Takes Two

    Unravel Two

    Portal 2

    Braid

    Portal

    Superliminal

    The Talos Principle

    The Talos Principle 2

    Antichamber

    Perspective

    Portal Reloaded

    Portal Stories: Mel

    Thinking with Time Machine

    Cell Machine

    Bokura

    Hades

    Hades 2

    Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

    Superhot

    Slay the Princess

    Mind over Magnet

    Escape Academy

    blue prince

    Pico Park 2

    Viewfinder

    Silksong

    Baba Is You XTREME

    Papers Please

    The Room

    Pico Park

    Wargroove

    Patrick's Parabox

    Q.U.B.E. 2

    Q.U.B.E.

    The Stanley Parable

    Noita

    Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

    Outer Wilds

    We Were Here Too

    Mini Motorways

    Don't Starve

    We Were Here

    scarlet hollow

    Terraria

    Chants of Sennaar

    Patch Quest

    Minecraft

    Manifold Garden

    We Were Here Forever

    Goragoa

    Subnauticta

    We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

    Baldur's Gate 3

    Clandestine

    Nobody Saves the World

    Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

    Split Fiction

    Rayman Legends

    LittleBigPlanet 3

    Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

    Bean and nothingness

    Space Station 13

    Nomifactory

    Monifactory

    Rebirth of the Night

    Induction

    Akane

    Morrowind

    going under: internships are heck

    Animal Well

    English Country Tune

    English Country Tune

    Satisfactory

    Expedition 33

    Quantum Conundrum

    Stoneshard

    Final Fantasy Tactics (original)

    Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced

    Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2

    Octopath Travel

    Project Triangle Strategy

    Sokosoko

    Physics-Breaking Boxes

    Inbox Unbox

    Linelith

    Boxing Up Bamboo

    Frog Wizard Gem Quest

    The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room

    Clockwork Cat

    salt and sactuary

    From Muddled to Clean

    Path to Nowhere

    Arknights

    Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten

    Lorelei and the Laser Eyes

    A Monster's Expedition

    Lingo

    Solas 128

    Gentoo Rescue

    Ugly

    Toki Tori 2+

    Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game

    Isles of Sea and Sky

    Chroma Zero

    Paquerette

    Riven

    Baba Files Taxes

    Baba Is Quiz

    A Solitaire Mystery

    IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME

    Leaf's Odyssey

    Submachine

    LOK Digital

    Leap Year

    Recursed

    Fever Meme

    Passant: A Chess Roguelike

    tetr.io (quickplay duos)

    Taiji

    Crawl

    Corekeeper

    Emberknights

    Sworn

    Jumpspace

    Gloomhaven

    Mountain Peak

    A Way Out

    The Past Within

    How 2 Escape

    All You Need is Help

    Melbits World

    Parallel Experiment

    Superbugs: Awaken

    Tick Tock: A Tale for Two

    Tristoy

    Unboxing the Cryptic Killer

    Tetris Effect

    Pushmo

    World of Goo

    The Swapper

    Papers, Please

    The Séance of Blake Manor

    Fugitive (board/card game)

    Codenames Duet (card game)

    Pandemic (boardgame)

    Fugitive (board/card game)

    Nine Sols

    Sineus Arena

    Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

    Moonlighter

    Myst

    We Were Here Together

    Hyperrogue

    Void Stranger

    PEAK

    Exploding kittens

    Sackboy: A Big Adventure

    Arc Raiders

    Unstable Unicorns 🦄

    Mario Party

    Magicka

    Yume Nikki

    The House of DaVinci

    Tunic

    Moving Out

    Moving Out

    Timberborn

    Trine 2

    A Couple Of Cubes

    Root (tabletop or digital version)

    Children of Morta

    Rainworld

    Deadly Rooms of Death

    Fez

    CrossCode

    Cocoon

    Islands of Insight

    Into the Breach

    Monopoly

    USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)

    SteamWorld Dig

    Snakebird

    Chess

    Slay the Spire

    Among Us

    Beyond: Two Souls

    Stephen's Sausage Roll

    Amazing Chicken Adventures

    Spiritfarer

    Wingspan

    Stardew Valley

    Can of Wormholes

    Disco Elysium

    Splendor (tabletop game)

    Overcooked

    Return of the Obra Dinn

    Inscryption

    Slice and Dice

    Glider (1988)

    Teardown

    Human: Fall Flat

    Castle Crashers

    Tokimeki Memorial

    999

    Detroit: Become Human

    Zero Time Dilemma

    Astroneer

    Wild Woods

    What Remains of Edith Finch

    Advance Wars

    Doki Doki Literature Club!

    Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc

    100

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    80

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    80

    77

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    66

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    60

    56

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    55

    55

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    50

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    47

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    35

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    25

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    22

    22

    15

    10

    5

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1072

    965

    Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

    May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
    41.49%chance
    355985

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1315

    990

    OptionProbability

    It scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)

    It scores at least 55% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)

    It will only be available on the max plan and/or the API

    It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release

    It will cost at least 3x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 currently does on the API

    It will cost at least 5x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 does per output token on the API

    It will implement parallel test-time compute (like GPT pro series) rather than just being a larger model than Opus

    100

    100

    40

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

    Preventing S-Risks

    Wild-animal welfare

    Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

    Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

    Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

    Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

    Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

    Climate geoengineeering

    Preventing stable totalitarianism

    Space governance / space colonization

    Georgism (aka land value taxes)

    Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

    Cryonics & brain-emulation research

    Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

    Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

    Civilizational-preservation bunkers

    Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

    38

    34

    31

    26

    24

    21

    20

    19

    18

    14

    12

    10

    9

    9

    9

    8

    7

    6

    OptionProbability

    Pi is Transcendental

    The Independence of the Parallel Postulate

    Pick's theorem

    The Number of Platonic Solids

    Irrationality of Apéry's constant

    Kuratowski's theorem

    Jordan–Brouwer separation theorem

    Fermat’s Last Theorem

    The Four Color Theorem

    15 and 290 Theorems

    There exists n such that the value of BusyBeaver(n) is undecidable in ZFC

    Infinitude of prime pairs w/ gap ≤ 246

    Goldbach's weak conjecture

    Poincaré conjecture

    Hodge conjecture

    CFSG

    Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness (unbounded) (positive)

    Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness (unbounded) counterexample

    95

    95

    94

    92

    87

    73

    71

    63

    62

    57

    42

    26

    26

    23

    15

    13

    9

    8

    If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

    Mar 10, 5:05 PMNov 3, 7:59 AM
    65%chance
    271159

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1139

    910

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1336

    767

    Can we productively coordinate with people in parallel universes?

    Mar 26, 12:42 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    13.26%chance
    16818

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1585

    866

    Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

    Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    35%chance
    10601

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1137

    918

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1011

    889

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