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Top stories

China Showcases Military Strength as PLA Marks 98th Anniversary

China Showcases Military Strength as PLA Marks 98th Anniversary

Authors

3

2 days ago

Prediction markets for PLA

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.77%chance

18391290866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4973

3783

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.71%chance

85130764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2919

859

People's Liberation Army (PLA) stock

Apr 13, 9:22 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

15767

OptionProbability

NO

YES

267

216

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2026?

Nov 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.55%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

76

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2031?

Nov 7, 4:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

58.75%chance

354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

75

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

51.55%chance

753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

79

Has PLA General He Weidong (何卫东) been arrested?

Mar 18, 5:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

69.23%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will "Evidence of Learned Look-Ahead in a Chess-Pla..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 3:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

944

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2028?

Nov 7, 4:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2035?

Nov 7, 4:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Has PLA General Wang Houbin (王厚斌) been arrested?

Mar 28, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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