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Top stories

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Authors

6

1 year ago

China Unveils FK-3000 Anti-Drone System with 96 Micro Missiles, HQ-29 Missile, Microwave Weapons, and Hosts Drone Events

China Unveils FK-3000 Anti-Drone System with 96 Micro Missiles, HQ-29 Missile, Microwave Weapons, and Hosts Drone Events

Authors

7

1 year ago

Xi Purges Fifth of PLA Generals Before Beijing Weapons Parade

Xi Purges Fifth of PLA Generals Before Beijing Weapons Parade

Authors

13

11 months ago

Prediction markets for PLA

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

45.63%chance

21942002791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4736

3979

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.87%chance

563470419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3104

2046

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

82.1%chance

88132314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2739

903

After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?

Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

23029099

OptionProbability

Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised

Israel

Hamas

PLO

International Peacekeeping Force

Other

Arab only Peacekeeping Force

A new Gaza-elected government

United States

Territorial rule by tribal clans

PLA

African Peacekeeping Force

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Turkey

32

28

24

5

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59%chance

8615099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

834

Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by

Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

78.99%chance

612379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19913

4162

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.45%chance

282492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10933

9146

People's Liberation Army (PLA) stock

Apr 13, 9:22 AMApr 14, 3:59 AM

15767

OptionProbability

NO

YES

267

216

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2031?

Nov 7, 4:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

58.75%chance

354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

75

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2027?

Nov 7, 4:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

51.55%chance

753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

79

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2035?

Nov 7, 4:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Will there be a physical collision between a PLA aircraft and an aircraft of another nation's military before 2028?

Nov 7, 4:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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