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Prediction markets for PLO
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
Dec 2, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.48%chance
18377199
OptionVotes
2274
1635
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM
22427674
OptionProbability
28
27
25
7
4
3
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
164
61
OptionProbability
33
25
19
10
7
4
1
1
0
After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 10, 11:59 AMNov 9, 11:59 PM
181941
OptionProbability
30
21
20
15
8
3
2
1
0
Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.44%chance
10671
OptionVotes
604
70
Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?
Aug 12, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.87%chance
21637
OptionVotes
1133
955
Did Russian GPS jamming delay Ursula von der Leyen's arrival in Plovdiv by an hour?
Sep 2, 10:34 AMDec 31, 10:00 PM
4.39%chance
10421
OptionVotes
466
21
Will "Murder plots are infohazards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 14, 5:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
5.5%chance
4142
OptionVotes
242
87
Will Trump pardon the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot defendants?
Jun 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 6:44 PM
15.56%chance
6137
OptionVotes
233
43
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM
69.5%chance
688
OptionVotes
369
258
Will generative.ink be used to guide the plotline of a future video game like Watchdogs or Deus Ex 5?
Sep 22, 5:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
38.42%chance
240
OptionVotes
112
72
Latest stories
Latest stories
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