Policy Board News

5 days ago

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

YES

1010

851

Who will be the next chairman of the federal reserve board?

Apr 25, 11:04 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

91483

OptionProbability

Someone else

Kevin Hassett

Kevin Warsh

Judy Shelton

Larry Kudlow

Arthur Laffer

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

60.38%chance

161221

OptionVotes

YES

1234

810

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Will the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles be charged with a federal crime for interfering with ICE before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.21%chance

2106

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will the Netherlands contribute €180 million to the Global Fund during the 2023-2025 period, as pledged in 2022?

Jan 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.13%chance

679

OptionVotes

YES

371

324

Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 8:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.13%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

104

⛹️🧑‍🎓 After Dartmouth, at what colleges will student athletes unionize? (ADD RESPONSES)

Mar 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

115

OptionProbability

Arizona State

UPenn

UCLA

University of Oregon

Yale

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Japan
Economics
Business
BOJ Board Member Takata to Deliver Hiroshima Speech on Oct. 20
Authors
5
5 days ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

Policy Board News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Policy Board

Prediction markets for Policy Board

Prediction markets for Policy Board

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Who will be the next chairman of the federal reserve board?

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Will the mayor of San Diego or Los Angeles be charged with a federal crime for interfering with ICE before 2028?

Will the Netherlands contribute €180 million to the Global Fund during the 2023-2025 period, as pledged in 2022?

Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?

⛹️🧑‍🎓 After Dartmouth, at what colleges will student athletes unionize? (ADD RESPONSES)

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram