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Prediction markets for Politburo
When will the next Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?
Mar 27, 3:16 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM
2119
OptionProbability
33
17
17
17
17
Will any member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP be removed from their position before Autumn 2027?
Nov 2, 12:26 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM
46.12%chance
5119
OptionVotes
105
73
OptionVotes
163
55
Any current or past member of the CCP's Politburo flees China through 2027
Sep 19, 3:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
599
OptionVotes
136
88
Any current member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash
Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM
23%chance
466
OptionVotes
154
58
Will the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman?
Mar 27, 3:20 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM
52.05%chance
561
OptionVotes
126
91
When will the first Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to include a woman be chosen?
Mar 27, 3:12 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM
350
OptionProbability
23
23
23
22
8
Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2032?
Nov 2, 1:14 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM
40.34%chance
442
OptionVotes
96
84
Any current or past member of the CCP's Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) dies in a plane crash
Aug 23, 5:48 PMAug 13, 6:59 AM
32.06%chance
331
OptionVotes
119
71
Will Zhang Shengmin be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?
Jan 21, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.02%chance
125
OptionVotes
125
80
OptionVotes
115
73
Will a 'civilian' Vice Chairman of Central Military Committee of the CCP be elected before Autumn 2027?
Nov 2, 1:11 PMNov 1, 3:59 PM
40.98%chance
110
OptionVotes
60
42
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