Politico News

The case settles before a verdict is reached.

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.

Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.

Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.

The case appears before the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.

OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.

The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.

New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.

New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.

The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.

The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.

New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.

NO

Labour

Conservatives

Greens

Reform

YES

YES

NO

YES

YES

NO

New leader (&PM) from within Labour as his successor, with no general election preceding

Labour voting intention goes to >25% on Politico Poll of Polls within 6 months

Labour voting intention drops to <10% on Politico Poll of Polls within 6 months (or remains under 10%)

40 - 49.9%

30 - 39.9%

20 - 29.9%

50 - 59.9%

Below 20%

60 - 69.9%

NO