Post News

Bezos Said to Eye CNBC Purchase After Comcast Cable Spinoff

10 days ago

DOGE

US Domestic Policy

AI Products

Trump’s DOGE Uses AI Tool to Target Elimination of Half of U.S. Rules

7 days ago

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

17.82%chance

9948527

OptionVotes

YES

1596

1339

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

33318

3293

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

11036

9044

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

YES

3243

555

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

7704

2333

Will I regularly post on my history blog through 2025?

Jul 5, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.35%chance

63879

OptionVotes

YES

10274

9734

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Aug 6, 1:16 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14914

OptionProbability

No TAC, keep the queries

Keep the TAC, keep the queries

No TAC, lose the queries

Keep the TAC, lose the queries

Will I have 10 new posts on my website by the end of 2025?

Jan 3, 5:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.42%chance

8780

OptionVotes

YES

1053

950

Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???

Dec 1, 3:52 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9707

OptionVotes

YES

1363

734

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

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Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will I regularly post on my history blog through 2025?

Apple/Google post United States v. Google by 2026 year end?

Will I have 10 new posts on my website by the end of 2025?

Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

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