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AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

1573

1344

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.75%chance

10842699

OptionVotes

YES

11769

8879

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Apr 15, 4:48 PMJan 20, 5:29 PM

77.39%chance

26018686

OptionVotes

YES

1850

541

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

7704

2333

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90%chance

112412

OptionVotes

YES

1754

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

67.14%chance

111317

OptionVotes

YES

1598

335

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.85%chance

41155

OptionVotes

YES

2123

471

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

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AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Latest stories

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