Post News

DHS Moves Secretary Noem to Military Housing Citing Security Threats

10 months ago

Washington Post Says Colts’ Jim Irsay Relapsed and Had Three Overdoses

NFL

Sports

Culture

Washington Post Says Colts’ Jim Irsay Relapsed and Had Three Overdoses

10 months ago

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4281215

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

1573

1344

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

11866

8858

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Apr 15, 4:48 PMJan 20, 5:29 PM

77.19%chance

26018689

OptionVotes

YES

1840

544

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76%chance

10913611

OptionVotes

YES

2950

638

Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?

Jan 2, 11:19 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

95.99%chance

267959

OptionVotes

YES

4253

123

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

7704

2333

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90%chance

112412

OptionVotes

YES

1754

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.31%chance

41350

OptionVotes

YES

2318

431

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Jan 28, 1:19 AMJan 1, 1:19 AM

OptionProbability

0-9 Days

10-49 Days

50-99 Days

100+ Days

Latest stories

Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
NFL
Sports
Culture
Washington Post Says Colts’ Jim Irsay Relapsed and Had Three Overdoses
Authors
12
10 months ago
Aug 16, 2025
Aug 16, 2025
US Gov Appointments
US Domestic Policy
Washington DC
DHS Moves Secretary Noem to Military Housing Citing Security Threats
Authors
5
10 months ago

Join our channels

Get the latest stories live on any device.

WhatsApp
Top Stories
Join
Telegram
Top Stories
Join

Post News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

Prediction markets for Post

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram