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Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
15%chance
10248838
OptionVotes
1879
1284
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.6%chance
10842720
OptionVotes
11866
8858
Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?
Apr 15, 4:48 PMJan 20, 5:29 PM
73%chance
26319504
OptionVotes
1644
608
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
84.14%chance
10914299
OptionVotes
3638
469
Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.18%chance
158124
OptionVotes
8398
2142
Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.75%chance
75706
OptionVotes
15368
6507
Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
90.04%chance
122413
OptionVotes
1755
32
Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
84.46%chance
41363
OptionVotes
2331
429
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.94%chance
29705
OptionVotes
991
975
Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?
Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
38.94%chance
17652
OptionVotes
1088
822
Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
31.37%chance
5358
OptionVotes
1156
411
Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?
Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM
14.1%chance
4180
OptionVotes
7270
7055
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