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1 year ago

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

17.44%chance

10148588

OptionVotes

YES

1629

1332

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.6%chance

10842720

OptionVotes

YES

11866

8858

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

Apr 15, 4:48 PMJan 20, 5:29 PM

70.02%chance

26319242

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.14%chance

10914299

OptionVotes

YES

3638

469

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.37%chance

147824

OptionVotes

YES

8098

2220

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

65556

OptionVotes

YES

15218

6571

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 15, 4:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

90.04%chance

122413

OptionVotes

YES

1755

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

YES

2331

429

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.94%chance

29705

OptionVotes

YES

991

975

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.94%chance

17652

OptionVotes

YES

1088

822

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 1:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31.37%chance

5358

OptionVotes

YES

1156

411

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

7270

7055

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Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Will "Current AIs seem pretty misaligned to me" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Will "Make More Grayspaces" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

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