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Prediction markets for PREP
Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?
Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
28.78%chance
212033
OptionVotes
1573
636
Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?
Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.7%chance
161969
OptionVotes
1919
765
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
71671
OptionProbability
100
66
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
Will the Giro d'Italia's calendar position change before 2030?
Oct 18, 7:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
24.02%chance
91385
OptionVotes
3717
2111
How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM
3603
OptionProbability
53
33
14
Will BBC News report US preparations for possible nuclear weapon use against Iran before 2028?
Sep 2, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.93%chance
9287
OptionVotes
194
51
Is the preprint proof of Goldbach's weak conjecture sound?
Oct 28, 3:37 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
81.17%chance
9215
OptionVotes
245
83
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will at least $30 billion in new funding be authorized towards US pandemic preparedness?
Oct 12, 10:19 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM
59.57%chance
471
OptionVotes
130
93
Class de 2031 vai ter a maior % de aprovações da história do prep?
Feb 9, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
66.07%chance
255
OptionVotes
140
72
By 2031, will MIRI still require the services of a CPA or equivalent professional to prepare their 2030 tax form?
Jul 11, 4:43 PMJul 12, 6:59 AM
57.55%chance
651
OptionVotes
110
107
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