PRI News
Top stories
Prediction markets for PRI
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?
Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15.89%chance
286686677
OptionVotes
22659
4871
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31%chance
18679660
OptionVotes
4803
133
Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?
Jan 21, 3:23 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM
15.71%chance
2948660
OptionVotes
19025
6471
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
56.8%chance
5626924
OptionVotes
114667
87209
Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
56.59%chance
1320593
OptionVotes
11224
8946
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2025?
Jan 22, 6:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
86.66%chance
4720282
OptionVotes
24783
2497
Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM
32.3%chance
2415943
OptionVotes
14478
6907
Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.51%chance
189152
OptionVotes
17089
5852
Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
30.66%chance
167337
OptionVotes
14113
7510
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024
Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.88%chance
86079
OptionVotes
13368
7042
Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?
Jan 22, 7:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.78%chance
143822
OptionVotes
11310
8500
Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 27, 1:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
70%chance
4469
OptionVotes
1452
101
Latest stories
Latest stories