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Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM
10%chance
66260292
OptionVotes
300070
33326
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
27%chance
20292581
OptionVotes
4792
161
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
62.79%chance
6342394
OptionVotes
129891
76988
Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
64.94%chance
1522793
OptionVotes
13424
7530
Will inflation-adjusted gas prices rise in the US in 2025?
Jan 22, 7:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34%chance
2216820
OptionVotes
14997
5858
Will there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
Apr 28, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:27 PM
32.15%chance
2415993
OptionVotes
14528
6883
Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?
Jan 22, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
29.06%chance
2313941
OptionVotes
14715
7254
Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.51%chance
189152
OptionVotes
17089
5852
Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024
Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.43%chance
128234
OptionVotes
15509
5886
China's 70-city new home price index YoY change for December 2025 >= -2.0%?
Nov 26, 6:05 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
40.83%chance
32393
OptionVotes
12039
8306
China's 70-city new home price index for January 2026 ≥ -2.0% YoY?
Nov 26, 6:08 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM
56.37%chance
41397
OptionVotes
11367
8797
Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 27, 1:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
70%chance
4469
OptionVotes
1452
101
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