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Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847222

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

Heather McPherson

Caroline Mulroney

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.35%chance

5734209

OptionVotes

YES

11596

8623

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

6621293

OptionVotes

YES

5892

4513

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

618678

OptionVotes

YES

4007

1484

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Mar 25, 2:29 PMDec 31, 2:17 PM

286926

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Kemi Badenoch

Wes Streeting

Angela Rayner

James Cleverly

Zack Polanski

Rachel Reeves

David Lammy

Robert Jenrick

David Miliband

Keir Starmer

Tom Tugendhat

Rupert Lowe

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Sadiq Khan

Andy Burnham

Ed Miliband

Lucy Powell

Alistair Carns

John Healey

Suella Braverman

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Aug 7, 11:44 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

69.21%chance

484877

OptionVotes

YES

1584

301

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Nov 9, 3:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.74%chance

243868

OptionVotes

YES

4373

102

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.23%chance

42026

OptionVotes

YES

7892

5278

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.53%chance

261765

OptionVotes

YES

1499

450

Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?

Nov 11, 10:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.57%chance

9824

OptionVotes

YES

1029

972

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

1173

596

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

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Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

UK Prime Minister after Andy Burnham

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Will a non-Mersenne prime become the largest known prime at some point before 2030-01-01?

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

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