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On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

213296579

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-06-30 / June 30, 2026

2026-07-31 / 31st July 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

100

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.67%chance

235208675

OptionVotes

YES

34651

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

Apr 28, 10:00 PMApr 28, 9:54 PM

7847126

OptionProbability

Mark Carney

Pierre Poilievre

Other

Doug Ford

Jason Kenney

Avi Lewis

Justin Trudeau

Heather McPherson

Caroline Mulroney

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

6220395

OptionVotes

YES

5494

4791

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.25%chance

2813871

OptionVotes

YES

10674

9369

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Nov 20, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.82%chance

618579

OptionVotes

YES

4106

1481

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Nov 9, 3:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

4.74%chance

243868

OptionVotes

YES

4373

102

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Aug 7, 11:44 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.01%chance

442729

OptionVotes

YES

1882

201

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.74%chance

41826

OptionVotes

YES

7692

5323

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

Dec 17, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.21%chance

251715

OptionVotes

YES

1449

480

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

18950

OptionVotes

YES

1178

778

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

Jul 27, 10:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3110

OptionProbability

2080 or later

2040s

2030s

2020s

2050s

2060s

2070s

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On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

[ACX 2026] Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

By 2040, will Nathan Young (twitter handle @NathanpmYoung) become Prime Minister?

Will humans say the largest prime number before we find the next one?

Will Bibi still be the prime minister of Israel in 2027?

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Will Narendra Modi be Prime Minister of India after 2029 election?

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

In which decade will the prime factors of RSA-2048 first be known?

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