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Prediction markets for Public Investment Fund
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.58%chance
233790
OptionVotes
1073
935
OptionVotes
1286
778
Will the United States pass a federal wealth tax before January 1st, 2030?
Mar 19, 4:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
9.48%chance
161370
OptionVotes
461
128
OptionVotes
265
38
Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
26.9%chance
10282
OptionVotes
409
180
Will Malik Samara found or lead a company with a valuation of at least $100 million by December 31, 2026?
Jan 18, 6:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
1269
OptionProbability
42
36
22
1
[Carlini questions] US or China has created a public AI "Manhattan Project"
Mar 24, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7221
OptionProbability
77
70
59
42
8
OptionVotes
1020
983
Will at least one US private credit fund with >$1 billion in AUM announce it is closing to new investors by Jun 15, 2026
Mar 16, 10:48 AMApr 30, 10:48 AM
71.87%chance
270
OptionVotes
150
72
Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
29.01%chance
669
OptionVotes
242
153
When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?
Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM
110
OptionProbability
33
17
17
17
17
Will Science Corp shutdown or be acquired for less than $160m USD before 2034.
Sep 2, 9:14 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM
57.37%chance
18
OptionVotes
78
63
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