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Prediction markets for Public Security
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.63%chance
10975946
OptionVotes
23112
2751
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.7%chance
3134762
OptionVotes
25099
3984
Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?
Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.54%chance
17534125
OptionVotes
14201
7469
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.63%chance
3315534
OptionVotes
15062
6649
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.14%chance
226652
OptionVotes
12736
7852
OptionProbability
24
20
20
10
10
7
5
1
1
1
1
1
Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?
Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM
30.35%chance
155038
OptionVotes
1515
660
What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?
May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM
94872
OptionProbability
13
13
12
9
8
7
7
5
5
5
5
5
4
OptionProbability
73
14
5
4
4
Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
58.71%chance
214219
OptionVotes
1192
839
Will OpenAI and Anthropic both have moved off Unix-based operating systems by end of 2027?
Nov 6, 12:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
45%chance
16782
OptionVotes
351
171
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
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