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Prediction markets for Public Security
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?
Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM
11.2%chance
12744195
OptionVotes
2995
345
Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
34.1%chance
7636038
OptionVotes
1413
731
OptionProbability
52
37
10
1
0
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.84%chance
1717830
OptionVotes
16831
5963
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.76%chance
487893
OptionVotes
7320
2094
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.01%chance
85507
OptionVotes
15284
6552
Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?
Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM
23.32%chance
154740
OptionVotes
1813
552
OptionProbability
75
8
7
7
3
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.12%chance
113641
OptionVotes
11967
8356
Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026
Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM
41.18%chance
292620
OptionVotes
1195
837
During the Super Bowl, will Trump whine about Bad Bunny like a pathetic little bitch?
Feb 3, 9:47 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM
75.05%chance
371957
OptionVotes
1734
577
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
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