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Prediction markets for Public Security
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?
Feb 3, 2:45 PMJun 4, 10:59 PM
8.31%chance
13446992
OptionVotes
3506
290
OptionProbability
48
40
11
0
0
Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?
Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77.6%chance
2019659
OptionVotes
18647
5382
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.84%chance
528586
OptionVotes
6672
2629
Will there be a public assasination attempt on Elon Musk by EOY 2027
Feb 7, 11:43 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM
21.15%chance
547944
OptionVotes
1931
518
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.3%chance
196946
OptionVotes
13549
7392
Will Kilmar Ábrego García appear publicly with any 2028 presidential candidate?
Apr 8, 5:24 PMNov 8, 5:00 PM
23.32%chance
154740
OptionVotes
1813
552
OptionProbability
75
8
7
7
3
Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?
Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.32%chance
143736
OptionVotes
11916
8392
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
Feb 6, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.33%chance
202069
OptionVotes
1516
660
Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?
Mar 20, 3:17 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM
44%chance
161886
OptionVotes
1128
886
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
50.47%chance
3107
OptionVotes
1059
1041
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