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Prediction markets for Q1
OptionProbability
51
24
17
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3174956
OptionProbability
100
27
25
20
0
0
0
OptionProbability
88
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
70
65
56
50
41
33
28
22
16
10
5
3
If Anthropic caves to the Pentagon in Q1 2026, will it remain a leading AI lab in 2027?
Feb 27, 2:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1410172
OptionProbability
85
13
1
1
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
17.29%chance
339085
OptionVotes
8381
4121
OptionProbability
90
76
63
22
0
Will AMD have a higher market share of CPUs (all CPUs) than Intel in Q1 2030?
Feb 3, 1:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
69.1%chance
171823
OptionVotes
1634
367
Will US real GDP in Q1 2030 be at least 50% greater than in Q1 2025?
Feb 6, 10:34 PMFeb 14, 4:59 AM
44.51%chance
101740
OptionVotes
1116
896
Will any UK cabinet ministers resign in Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 of 2026?
Dec 21, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9537
OptionProbability
100
100
65
58
0
Scott Alexander's "In 2028, AI movie" market will be resolved in Q1 2028
Sep 23, 3:41 PMApr 2, 9:59 PM
81.12%chance
15477
OptionVotes
1214
928
Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?
Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
18409
OptionProbability
48
16
10
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