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Prediction markets for Raptors
Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?
Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3377099
OptionProbability
100
26
20
9
0
0
0
OptionProbability
94
92
91
88
86
86
85
82
79
79
76
73
72
70
70
61
56
50
50
46
41
38
37
34
16
14
14
13
12
12
OptionProbability
100
100
24
11
9
0
0
OptionProbability
22
18
10
10
9
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
16
16
13
9
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
17
16
11
8
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
33
22
12
Will a 9 Raptor Starship second stage fly before 2028?
Aug 26, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.14%chance
4383
OptionVotes
361
28
During Starship Test Flight 14, how many Booster's Raptor 3 engines will cut off before MECO ?
Aug 5, 12:19 AMAug 5, 3:59 AM
9208
OptionProbability
43
38
5
4
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
12
11
7
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
119
101
Will an F-22 Raptor shoot down a manned military aircraft before 2030?
Sep 4, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.51%chance
576
OptionVotes
166
105