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YES

Shanks is the only holy knight (past member or current member) from the Red-Haired Pirates

Other

No, they are not the holy knights nor do they have any affiliation (besides Garling)

Someone else from the Red-haired Pirates besides Shanks was a past member or is a current member of the holy knights

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

It is not possible to multitask

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)

George Russel (Mercedes)

Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

Jack Doohan (Alpine)

Alexander Albon (Williams)

Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)

Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (VCARB)

Isack Hadjar (VCARB)

Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)

Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)

Esteban Ocon (Haas)

Red Dead Redemption 2

Assassin's Creed Mirage

Assassin's Creed Shadows

Crimson Desert

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7

Halo: The Master Chief Collection

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024

Grand Theft Auto IV

Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege

Grand Theft Auto VI

Grand Theft Auto V

R+L=J

Mad Queen Dany

Shireen burnination

Nightlamp

King Bran

Jojen-paste

The Pink Letter not by Ramsey

Lemongate

Somebody is Euron

Aegon is a Blackfyre

Dany will burn the house with the Red Door

Time-traveling Bran

Arya kills Lady Stoneheart

Marwyn is Maegor Brightflame

Gerion Lannister is the Shrouded Lord

Bolt-On

Length is over 500 pages

A dragon dies

Jon Snow is revealed to be the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark

A character is burned alive

No new point of view characters outside of prologue/epilogue

The wait for the book is longer than for the previous 4 books combined (i.e. it is not released before 26th June 2026)

There is an epilogue

Word count is greater than any previous book in the series

Daenerys arrives in Westeros (Dragonstone counts)

A POV character (excluding Prologue/Epilogue) has exactly 1 chapter

Benjen Stark will be found alive

The Harpy is revealed to be Galazza Galare (the Green Grace)

All living Stark children (of Ned) will survive

Littlefinger will be killed by Lady Stoneheart/The Brotherhood Without Banners

Daenerys will destroy the house with the red door

Jon Snow ceases to be a POV character after his resurrection

A PoV character sees a literal kraken (excluding dreams, visions etc.)

Varys will gaslight Daenerys about her birth/lineage and accuse her of not being a Targaryen

Quentyn Martell is revealed to still be alive and has a POV chapter

It's published after the author's death

Daario will reveal himself to be the same person as Euron Greyjoy

Sesame Street

Jeopardy

Simpsons

Battlebots

Cyberchase

Wheel of Fortune

Homestar Runner

Peppa Pig

Bobs Burgers

Survivor

Antiques Roadshow

Rick and Morty

Spongebob Squarepants

Shark Tank

Ancient Aliens

Paw patrol

NCIS

South Park

Bluey

Severence

The Bear

Ghost Adventures

Storage Wars

Deadliest Catch

Family Feud

Black Mirror

Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Pawn Stars

Phineas and Ferb

American Pickers

Family Guy

Abbott Elementry

Teen Titans Go!

Robot Chicken

Beavis and Butt Head

Law & Order (revival)

The Incredible Dr Pol

Ghost Hunters

Impractical Jokers

American Horror Story

Law & Order: SVU

Grey's Anatomy

White Lotus

Forged in Fire

Hazbin Hotel

Is it Cake

American Dad

True Detective

Futurama

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Red vs Blue

Stranger Things

Defence spending amounts to 2% or more of GDP by the end of the cabinet period.

The maximum speed on one or more highways has been increased to 130 km/h.

The national debt remains below 60% of GDP throughout the entire cabinet period.

The standard term for naturalization has been extended to 10 years.

The independence of the Electoral Council will be strengthened and its mandate expanded to an Electoral Authority.

The growth in the number of civil servants and the use of consultants in (core) departments in recent years will be more than reversed.

The average EMU balance over the cabinet period is 2.8% of GDP or lower.

Red diesel is again available for farmers, horticulturists, and agricultural contractors.

A legal maximum has been set for the increase in municipal housing tax (property tax, either in legislation or an agreement with the municipalities).

A statutory regulation will be introduced for independent inspectorates, supervisory bodies, and authorities, including their method of enforcement (law on national inspectorates and authorities).

A constitutional amendment to abolish the ban on constitutional review in Article 120 will be submitted.

A constitutional amendment to introduce a constitutional court that reviews laws against the Constitution will be submitted.

The healthcare deductible is 165 euros or lower in 2027.

New legislation has been implemented that demonstrably tightens asylum policy.

At least 66% of new housing is affordable for middle-income households.

At least 30% of new housing is social housing.

A bill will be introduced, creating a new electoral system for the House of Representatives

The legal minimum age for prostitution has been raised to 21 years.

An average of 100,000 or more homes are built per year during the cabinet period.

Raccoon Dog

Masked Palm Civet

Bamboo Rat

Hog Badger

Other

Pangolin

No intermediate host (direct infection from bat to human)

Siberian Weasel

Malayan Porcupine

Marmot

Chinese Muntjac

Red Fox

Wild boar

Asian Badger

England doesn’t win a game

Harry Brook gets a ton

One test match has a winner by innings

Jofra Archer plays at least one test

Sydney gets rain

Stokes isn’t captain for all the games

Sydney is a Draw

Pat Cummins doesn’t play all 5 tests

Someone gets concussed

Complaint about red Westpac Logo on Players Shirts

Jamie Smith makes a ton

Aus Win 5-0