REF News
Top stories
Prediction markets for REF
OptionVotes
1635
745
Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?
Apr 27, 3:28 PMJun 30, 3:27 PM
4.15%chance
7520091
OptionVotes
10981
94
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.1%chance
4916609
OptionVotes
10246
3968
Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
Apr 14, 6:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.46%chance
257454
OptionVotes
15108
6619
Will the Conservative and Reform parties merge or closely cooperate before the end of the next election?
Jul 11, 12:24 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
28.7%chance
267261
OptionVotes
3191
1225
Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?
Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM
69.56%chance
406214
OptionVotes
3162
2308
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
Mar 24, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
163107
OptionProbability
46
21
13
12
2
2
2
2
If the PM at the end of 2031 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2031?
Apr 22, 2:10 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
If the PM at the end of 2029 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2029?
Apr 22, 2:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
If the PM at the end of 2032 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2032?
Apr 22, 2:11 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
If the PM at the end of 2030 is Reform, what will net migration be in 2030?
Apr 22, 2:10 PMJun 1, 10:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
OptionProbability
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7