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Sompo Buys Aspen Insurance for $3.5 Billion to Bolster US Reach
Authors
10
5 months ago
Prediction markets for Resolution Life
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.67%chance
480696936
OptionVotes
16706
12559
OptionVotes
4558
4379
Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]
Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
24%chance
48090112
OptionVotes
7294
4968
Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
37.79%chance
1964882
OptionVotes
6128
4633
Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?
Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM
80.88%chance
4626053
OptionVotes
4032
1971
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?
Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
96.04%chance
10423559
OptionVotes
10119
734
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?
May 24, 1:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.11%chance
14018007
OptionVotes
2694
1804
Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
27.44%chance
839820
OptionVotes
2695
815
Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?
Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
23.95%chance
538569
OptionVotes
1782
561
Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?
Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
61.92%chance
266710
OptionVotes
1251
784
Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.01%chance
175392
OptionVotes
9916
2845
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.96%chance
123209
OptionVotes
6132
3376