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Prediction markets for Retro
OptionProbability
99
98
97
76
48
22
21
20
17
14
8
8
4
1
1
1
In retrospect, would Sam Altman being fired from OpenAI be a net negative to alignment? (EoY 2025)
Nov 18, 10:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
61.45%chance
627029
OptionVotes
1045
847
OptionProbability
89
74
68
56
51
47
41
38
34
32
28
24
22
21
21
16
1
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.88%chance
161389
OptionVotes
1019
976
Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040?
Jul 31, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.79%chance
7451
OptionVotes
344
29
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
Jul 9, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
11.84%chance
5427
OptionVotes
273
37
OptionProbability
31
24
15
14
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?
Dec 24, 2:24 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM
17.65%chance
16276
OptionVotes
1168
945
Will there be a new CRT or CRT-like display for retro gaming manufactured before the end of 2025?
Jul 2, 5:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
19.3%chance
8191
OptionVotes
293
147
Will the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter successfully range the Laser Retro-reflector Array on IM-1 Odysseus?
Feb 27, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.8%chance
8190
OptionVotes
342
155
Will there be "Trump's Basilisk" for Trump retroactively going after all who didn't support his becoming AGI-powerful
Jan 7, 10:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.19%chance
6183
OptionVotes
236
42
Will I In Retrospect Value Having Read “If Anyone Builds It”
May 14, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:27 PM
60.29%chance
12150
OptionVotes
123
81
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