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Prediction markets for Retro
If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?
Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
64.88%chance
161389
OptionVotes
1019
976
OptionProbability
31
16
16
11
10
5
4
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Retrocausal interpretation of quantum mechanics consensus view by EOY2040?
Jul 31, 3:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.24%chance
8461
OptionVotes
256
39
Will Retro Biosciences succeed in increasing healthy human lifespan by ten years?
Dec 24, 2:24 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM
17.65%chance
16276
OptionVotes
1168
945
OptionProbability
73
70
66
62
61
51
34
Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.91%chance
6225
OptionVotes
1084
987
Will the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter successfully range the Laser Retro-reflector Array on IM-1 Odysseus?
Feb 27, 11:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
74.8%chance
8190
OptionVotes
342
155
Will there be "Trump's Basilisk" for Trump retroactively going after all who didn't support his becoming AGI-powerful
Jan 7, 10:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
15.19%chance
6183
OptionVotes
236
42
By the end of 2032, will GiveWell have retroactively reduced their estimates of the effectiveness of AMF between 2014 and 2019 by at least a factor of 2?
Dec 15, 8:30 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
21%chance
8145
OptionVotes
291
145
Retrotransposon activation identified as the primary root cause of ageing by 2035?
Sep 8, 8:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
19.07%chance
3140
OptionVotes
206
49
If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024
Jun 13, 11:38 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
17%chance
3122
OptionProbability
285
169
OptionVotes
110
91
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