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Prediction markets for Risk
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.48%chance
25117360
OptionVotes
2568
1703
Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
1810386
OptionProbability
76
12
4
3
3
2
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.46%chance
507971
OptionVotes
5317
494
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
87.5%chance
377300
OptionVotes
2645
378
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
74.93%chance
764012
OptionVotes
1313
1109
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?
May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
90.54%chance
383908
OptionVotes
7894
5344
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM
32.91%chance
461643
OptionVotes
1044
852
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.85%chance
231547
OptionVotes
1201
926
🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?
Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.13%chance
10454
OptionVotes
1096
933
If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?
Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.91%chance
17389
OptionVotes
1068
862
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