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Top stories

Company Earnings

Riskified Lifts 2025 Outlook and Adds $75 Million Share Buyback

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Risk

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

15%chance

10248838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

1284

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.4%chance

25518756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3256

1410

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

5512423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8856

317

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

88.26%chance

397502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2743

365

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.6%chance

774092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

1148

Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100?

Dec 23, 6:24 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.23%chance

163587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

972

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.6%chance

102953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

614

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.12%chance

491707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

874

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

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Aug 18, 2025
Aug 18, 2025
Company Earnings
Stocks
Business
Riskified Lifts 2025 Outlook and Adds $75 Million Share Buyback
Authors
5
1 year ago

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