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Prediction markets for Rivalries
Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?
Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
51.98%chance
9827251
OptionVotes
1184
701
Will a Democrat win the Ohio Senate special election?
Jul 23, 1:46 AMJun 1, 3:59 AM
37.42%chance
249552
OptionVotes
1293
773
Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?
Dec 21, 11:05 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM
48.8%chance
131785
OptionVotes
1024
976
Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
18.09%chance
171580
OptionVotes
1168
928
Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
17.4%chance
271563
OptionVotes
1284
896
Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse get a 95% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes?
Mar 24, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.1%chance
401385
OptionVotes
1190
825
OptionProbability
17
15
12
9
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
Mar 20, 9:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
33.12%chance
331269
OptionVotes
1467
632
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?
Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
49.02%chance
29920
OptionVotes
1243
666
OptionVotes
1098
911
Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?
Oct 31, 7:05 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM
31.19%chance
13361
OptionVotes
1106
929
Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?
Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.79%chance
15332
OptionVotes
995
986