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Prediction markets for Rivalries
Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?
Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
57.08%chance
9927451
OptionVotes
1101
801
OptionVotes
1225
816
Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?
Aug 28, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20.09%chance
665575
OptionVotes
1008
874
Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Mar 18, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
11.65%chance
282743
OptionVotes
1840
804
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?
Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
10%chance
342460
OptionVotes
2784
176
Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years?
Nov 11, 10:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.5%chance
241972
OptionVotes
1051
696
Will Elon Musk successfully primary any incumbent Democrats in the next election?
Dec 21, 11:05 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM
48.8%chance
131785
OptionVotes
1034
986
Will Joe Biden publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Mar 19, 12:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
17.07%chance
191646
OptionVotes
1234
913
Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse get a 95% or higher on Rotten Tomatoes?
Mar 24, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.1%chance
401385
OptionVotes
1190
825
OptionVotes
1040
961
Will there be a Democratic Supreme Court majority before the advent of AGI?
Oct 31, 7:05 AMNov 8, 4:59 AM
31.19%chance
13361
OptionVotes
1106
929
Will a system similar to Brilliant Pebbles be publicly known to exist in any country by 2040?
Aug 28, 6:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
28.79%chance
15332
OptionVotes
995
986