Runway News

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

Which university will I be admitted into?

Sep 18, 3:22 AMAug 31, 3:59 PM

2716622

OptionProbability

Oxford or Cambridge

Georgia Tech

UC San Diego

Any Ivy League school

University of Michigan - Ann Arbor

Cambridge

Oxford

I decide not to go to university for 2026-2027

UC Berkeley

Yale

Princeton

MIT

Harvard

When will Manifold run out of money?

Apr 3, 2:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

367644

OptionProbability

Not before 2026

Jan-Mar 2025

Apr-Jun 2025

Jul-Sep 2025

Oct-Dec 2025

In 2024

Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

Dec 18, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

343769

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

ByteDance

MiniMax

Other

OpenAI

Kuaishou

Tencent

Genmo

Runway

Haiper

What happened during the Jeju Air flight 2216 crash?

Dec 30, 12:37 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

152005

OptionProbability

Both engines ingested birds

The spoilers were not working

Electrical failure compromised multiple redundant systems

The aircraft didn’t slow down in the runway because it was trying to take off again

Hydraulic failure compromised multiple redundant systems

The landing gear was not working

The flaps were not working

The pilot shut down the wrong engine

Landing was justifiably rushed due to fire or unbreathable air in the cabin

Which party was at fault in the 2024 Haneda Airport runway collision?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14893

OptionProbability

The pilots of the stationary coast guard plane

The air traffic controllers

The procedures themselves

The pilots of the landing Japan Airlines Airbus A350

The airplane manufacturers

The maintenance crew

Somebody else/nobody

Will the third runway at Heathrow begin construction?

Mar 21, 8:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52%chance

15664

OptionVotes

YES

1177

773

Will an aeroplane take off from Heathrow's Third Runway before these dates?

Jan 30, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6646

OptionProbability

1st January 2045

1st January 2040

1st January 2035

1st January 2030

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

Aug 27, 3:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

74.6%chance

15295

OptionVotes

YES

1008

943

When dreamchaser launches, will it land on the runway succcessfully?

Jan 18, 8:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

7171

OptionVotes

YES

281

114

Will baggy jeans still be fashionable for womens on July 1 of 2026?

Jan 12, 6:10 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

70.64%chance

4125

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

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Prediction markets for Runway

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Prediction markets for Runway

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Which university will I be admitted into?

When will Manifold run out of money?

Which company has best Text-to-Video AI model end of 2025? (Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)

What happened during the Jeju Air flight 2216 crash?

Which party was at fault in the 2024 Haneda Airport runway collision?

Will the third runway at Heathrow begin construction?

Will an aeroplane take off from Heathrow's Third Runway before these dates?

Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?

When dreamchaser launches, will it land on the runway succcessfully?

Will baggy jeans still be fashionable for womens on July 1 of 2026?

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

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