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Prediction markets for Russian military
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?
Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
18.41%chance
13486486
OptionVotes
21331
3204
If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?
Aug 20, 11:16 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM
3434275
OptionProbability
80
15
2
2
If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?
May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM
46.78%chance
589636
OptionVotes
1067
938
OptionVotes
1884
531
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
Sep 15, 5:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
58.36%chance
826609
OptionVotes
1175
641
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
59.49%chance
465652
OptionVotes
1212
825
Will the US be at war with Russia at any point until 2030?
Apr 8, 3:06 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM
14.78%chance
1285354
OptionVotes
1406
1387
Will any foreign military trainers in Ukraine be killed by Russian attacks?
Jun 5, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
68.15%chance
323453
OptionVotes
1463
684
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
25.2%chance
363142
OptionVotes
1139
895
Will Ukraine militarily destroy or disable ALL Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft by EOY 2025?
Feb 23, 11:24 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
6.96%chance
9548
OptionVotes
535
124
If Russia secures a substantively pro-Russian ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes? [add responses]
Feb 22, 7:44 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
15444
OptionProbability
68
53
52
46
46
29
Will there still be an active Russian military base in Armenia in 2026?
Sep 10, 1:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
83%chance
7200
OptionVotes
221
45