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Prediction markets for SAFE
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
40%chance
827039
OptionVotes
1048
902
Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?
Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
84.78%chance
212098
OptionVotes
1770
759
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
22.7%chance
241545
OptionVotes
1579
737
Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030?
Jul 18, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
16.04%chance
271490
OptionVotes
906
293
Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?
Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.77%chance
9913
OptionVotes
1311
763
OptionVotes
1076
920
OptionVotes
1612
620
Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?
Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
5.06%chance
9585
OptionVotes
378
126
Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?
Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.2%chance
10296
OptionVotes
1177
956
Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?
Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
21.38%chance
12254
OptionVotes
1011
889
OptionVotes
1110
901
Will Blue Origin beat SpaceX to land safely on the moon?
Jul 5, 5:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
82.69%chance
6169
OptionVotes
219
46