SCO News

Shanghai Cooperation Organization to Hold Tianjin Summit Aug 31–Sept 1 With Leaders from 20+ Countries, Mayors Dialogue, and 10 International Organizations

18 days ago

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.25%chance

183266085

OptionVotes

YES

17639

7122

Top FrontierMath score in 2025?

Feb 28, 5:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5350254

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.99%chance

10741945

OptionVotes

YES

11036

9044

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1937355

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.58%chance

11730224

OptionVotes

YES

10621

5761

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.98%chance

2016016

OptionVotes

YES

17376

6671

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

6015052

OptionVotes

YES

9919

9893

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.68%chance

3812285

OptionVotes

YES

19786

5802

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

769927

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

10122

9934

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

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Jul 15, 2025
Jul 15, 2025
China
Politics
World
Shanghai Cooperation Organization to Hold Tianjin Summit Aug 31–Sept 1 With Leaders from 20+ Countries, Mayors Dialogue, and 10 International Organizations
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18 days ago

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Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Top FrontierMath score in 2025?

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Latest stories

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