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Screen Capital News

    Prediction markets for Screen Capital

    OptionProbability

    Bond will be a man

    Gunplay

    Bond drives a car

    On screen fatalities

    London will appear on screen

    Urban scene

    Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

    Car chase scene

    Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

    Bond tells ≥1 joke

    A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

    A named character speaks in a language other than English

    Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

    Bond drinks a martini

    Opening action sequence

    The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

    Gun Barrel Sequence

    Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

    Sex scene

    World capital other than London appears on screen

    Hacking electronics of some form

    Q appears

    Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

    Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

    Bond uses explosives

    The plot will be predominantly set in present day

    Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

    The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

    Someone in the movie says the title

    Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

    A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

    Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

    Asia will appear on screen

    Someone goes through a pane of glass

    A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

    It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

    It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

    The main theme song will be sung by a female

    There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

    "King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

    Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

    @HenriThunberg enjoys the film

    The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

    South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

    The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

    Bond rides a motorcycle

    A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

    >=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

    Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

    A sniper rifle is fired

    Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

    At least a portion filmed in Canada

    A scene shows James Bond naked

    Blue-eyed Bond

    Bond wields a Walther PPK

    Interracial sex scene

    Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

    Jungle / forest scene

    M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

    Bond flys an aircraft

    James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

    Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

    Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

    Bond parachutes

    It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

    Bond wears shorts

    Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

    >=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

    Arctic scene

    Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

    Death of a Bond love interest

    Bond gets slapped

    Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

    The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

    Prison/jail scene

    A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

    Black market trafficking

    Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

    Released in 2028

    The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

    Bond licks something

    Bond and a pond shown on screen together

    Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

    someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

    Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

    Bond slaps someone

    Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

    James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

    A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

    Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

    Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

    There will be a voiced character that is an AI

    Bond rides a bicycle

    Torture

    Bond receives a gunshot wound

    A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

    Wilhelm scream

    The title will refer to life and/or death

    @brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

    Bond drives a boat

    A safe is cracked (any means possible)

    Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

    James Bond plays poker

    Bond commits arson

    Nazis (neo- counts)

    Cryptocurrency is referenced

    Oral sex

    Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

    Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

    Terrorists

    US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

    Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

    Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

    Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

    Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

    A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

    Desert scene

    The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

    Ski chase scene

    Drug use

    Someone/something is x-rayed

    Thunderstorm

    Dessert scene

    An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    President of the United States is mentioned

    IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

    Robots

    Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

    Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

    It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

    Bond has facial hair

    There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

    Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

    Bond wears a mask

    Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

    James Bond plays baccarat

    Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

    Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

    Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

    Bond will be in a submarine

    Bond goes to space

    Bond is LQBTQ+

    Bond rides an animal

    James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

    Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

    Main villain speaks Russian on screen

    Bond has a disability

    Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

    Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

    Mexico is shown on screen

    Jetpack

    The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

    A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

    Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

    Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

    An EMP device plays a central role.

    At least one named character below 18 years old

    Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

    Canada is shown on screen

    Sharks

    Orgy

    fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

    Will feature something that can turn invisible

    A pinball machine will appear.

    Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

    Underwater combat

    The word "fuck" is said more than once.

    With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

    Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

    The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

    Bond is blond

    Pirates

    Assplay

    Emilia Clarke portrays a character

    Bond won't be Caucasian

    A hamburger appears on screen

    Bond uses a VR headset

    Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

    Bond has a neck tattoo

    Nuclear explosion

    Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

    Satanism

    Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

    Bond plays Russian roulette

    It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

    Gay sex scene

    ChatGPT is referenced by any character

    Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

    Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

    A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

    Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

    San Francisco is shown on screen

    Pegging

    Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

    Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

    Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

    A clocks shows the time 4:20

    Feature Nightcore music

    Supernatural entities

    Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

    There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

    Bond uses chopsticks

    Released in 2026

    Any character says the word "anime"

    Vampires

    Bond vapes

    The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

    Bond dies

    The fourth wall is broken

    Scat play

    Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

    Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

    Horse cock on screen (erect)

    Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

    The handkerchief code is a major plot element

    James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

    Bond is vegan

    It will be directed by a woman

    Bond plays League of Legends

    Destiny appears on screen

    Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

    Dragons

    Dinosaurs

    It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

    Bond hits the griddy

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    Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2034?

    May 3, 10:33 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM
    51.81%chance
    12568

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    104

    96

    Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2032?

    Mar 9, 11:53 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    13.93%chance
    8522

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    413

    140

    Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2033?

    Mar 12, 11:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    16.83%chance
    6247

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    289

    103

    Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?

    Mar 4, 10:42 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM
    14.92%chance
    6220

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    340

    118

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