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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War ends in 2025
500+ Iranian civilians killed
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Iran launches a cruise missile
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
A second cease-fire is announced
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian government dissolves
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Iran regime change
War Ends in June
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Total casualties exceed 10,000
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
War ends in July
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Qatar attacks Iran
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
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OptionProbability
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Sudanese Civil War ends
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
China invades Taiwan
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
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OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
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OptionProbability
USA
A landlocked country
Italy
A country founded in a prime number year
A tiny country (<1000km**2)
A country with <3m people
New Jersey
Canada
Asia
At least six countries
Saudi Arabia
Florida
United Kingdom
UK
An island state (see comment)
At least 20 states
Africa
Germany
Ukraine
India
Japan
France
South Korea
Mississippi
Alabama
Sweden, Norway, Finland, or Denmark
Brazil
Arizona
Israel
Poland
South America
China
Mexico
Indonesia
Argentina
Singapore
Turkey
South Africa
Peru
Guam
A country founded in 1990 or later
Finland
Nigeria
Taiwan (island)
Laos
Iraq
At least 30 states
Russia
Palestine (West Bank and/or Gaza Strip)
Gaza
Ireland
Lithuania
Gaza or the West Bank
At least 39 states
Vietnam
North Korea
Mongolia
All five members of the Permanent UN Security council
Space
Extended coma
The afterlife
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98
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96
72
66
65
58
58
56
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
41
41
34
34
34
29
29
28
27
26
26
24
23
21
21
21
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
11
8
7
6
4
3
OptionProbability
France
United States of America
People's Republic of China
Great Britain
Russia
Any East Asian or Southeast Asian state or intergovernmental organization (excluding China)
India
Brazil
Any arabic state or intergovernmental organization
European Union
Any african state or intergovernmental organization
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95
95
92
25
22
19
13
12
10
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1844
761
OptionProbability
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
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66
59
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27
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2277
439
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1185
802
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1417
927
OptionProbability
Yes, before 2033
Yes, before 2030
Yes, before 2027
46
14
7
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1142
963
