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Prediction markets for Shell
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
18
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?
Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM
9.28%chance
214429
OptionVotes
3126
320
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Nov 5, 3:19 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM
5.63%chance
172479
OptionVotes
1097
962
Republicans win democratically and then end democracy swiftly, satisfying militiants and quelling uprisings; civil war is avoided, but democracy becomes an empty shell and no part of the federal government regains democratic control by 2028
Nov 4, 7:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
12.55%chance
202169
OptionVotes
986
865
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
71671
OptionProbability
100
66
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
What programming languages are among the top 10 most popular next year?
Apr 14, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18977
OptionProbability
96
95
91
89
88
84
83
73
66
52
39
29
24
9
8
5
5
Will a neural network merge with a human brain before 2050?
Nov 25, 7:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
53.3%chance
17390
OptionVotes
1029
944
Will Shelly Miscavige publicly speak out against Scientology by the end of the decade?
Apr 1, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
34.27%chance
10207
OptionVotes
3530
3343
Will Wael Sawan (CEO of Shell) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 27, 2:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.78%chance
3196
OptionVotes
258
45
Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?
May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
37.47%chance
13159
OptionVotes
1875
1696
Will "Gradual Disempowerment, Shell Games and Flinches" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 3, 12:12 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
7%chance
194
OptionVotes
194
90
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