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This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
Sep 30, 10:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
1%chance
5026078
OptionVotes
3181
889
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)
May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
36.1%chance
2218272
OptionVotes
1041
910
OptionProbability
55
46
43
0
0
0
0
Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868
Sep 2, 4:46 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
29.93%chance
13452
OptionVotes
153
65
What will be true of the 1Y return of a small cap ETF (VB) vs. an SP500 ETF (VOO) on August 1st, 2027?
Jul 31, 1:05 AMAug 1, 4:01 AM
4241
OptionProbability
50
40
39
"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within five years
May 4, 7:11 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM
8%chance
4229
OptionVotes
301
24
How much small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) capacity in US by 2035?
Oct 16, 5:51 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM
6229
OptionProbability
33
32
16
14
6
Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?
Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
570
OptionProbability
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
40
OptionVotes
100
100
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