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Prediction markets for SORA
Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?
Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM
29.23%chance
15673728
OptionVotes
2369
545
Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?
Oct 1, 5:40 PMApr 8, 5:24 PM
38.76%chance
193967
OptionVotes
12570
7955
OptionVotes
2869
922
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before 2026?
Oct 4, 5:35 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
14.24%chance
123681
OptionVotes
2454
407
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
Oct 4, 5:36 AMJun 29, 10:59 PM
40.2%chance
142701
OptionVotes
1220
820
OptionVotes
10451
9568
Will OpenAI be sued for Copyright violations related to Sora 2?
Oct 7, 10:17 PMDec 31, 10:20 PM
91.57%chance
62355
OptionVotes
3295
304
Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?
Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.92%chance
111924
OptionVotes
2388
419
How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?
Feb 17, 5:29 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM
83.87%chance
201604
OptionVotes
1255
897
OptionVotes
1437
758
Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?
Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM
7235
OptionProbability
51
49
How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?
Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM
43.94%chance
9192
OptionVotes
10076
9896