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Prediction markets for SP
OptionVotes
2527
596
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
83.71%chance
85130764
OptionVotes
2919
859
OptionProbability
26
24
11
8
8
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM
15.31%chance
2629485
OptionVotes
23517
4252
Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Jan 1, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.39%chance
2026353
OptionVotes
2789
359
Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?
Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.59%chance
913193
OptionVotes
15073
7129
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39.98%chance
2212035
OptionVotes
12261
8153
Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?
Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
52.36%chance
22432
OptionVotes
10483
9539
Will there be another spaceflight-related death by 2030?
Feb 11, 7:17 PMFeb 18, 11:59 PM
51.25%chance
331312
OptionVotes
1075
906
Outcome of the Dutch 2025 parliamentary elections (resolves according to seat share)
Jun 10, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4178
OptionProbability
17
16
13
11
7
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
CBOE Putwrite index outperforms SPX (SP-500) over next year?
Jun 27, 11:03 PMAug 1, 11:03 PM
50%chance
114
OptionVotes
100
100
OptionProbability
33
33
33