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Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?
Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM
8.13%chance
127235268
OptionVotes
3153
961
OptionVotes
6356
304
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.56%chance
88132423
OptionVotes
2680
916
[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.72%chance
6445633
OptionVotes
33225
2613
OptionVotes
4161
496
OptionProbability
39
16
15
14
11
3
1
Elon Musk actually gifts a SpaceX share to every American child in 2027?
Oct 19, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.32%chance
12415970
OptionVotes
3034
1317
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
38.06%chance
2713596
OptionVotes
12765
7830
OptionProbability
45
18
15
12
9
OptionVotes
1022
976
Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?
Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
49.74%chance
321956
OptionVotes
6059
5939
OptionProbability
60
41
40
20
10
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