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Top stories

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit

Authors

73

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Space Force

First to land humans on the moon again?

Jan 31, 2:00 AMDec 1, 4:59 AM

586907

OptionProbability

China

Spacex

NASA

Blue Origin

Other

US Space Force

Japan

Russia

42

33

19

4

2

0

0

0

Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?

Dec 16, 4:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81374

OptionProbability

Luna (Earth's Moon)

Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)

Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)

Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)

Ocean platform (any site)

Other

Mars

65

13

6

6

3

3

3

2

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?

Oct 19, 2:46 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

3.14%chance

6636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

652

37

US Space Force combat casualty during 2026?

Mar 9, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.27%chance

12596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

544

18

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

944

Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?

Jun 2, 4:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.48%chance

8300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

548

Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2027?

Jul 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

16293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?

Oct 19, 2:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

9.6%chance

6231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

28

Will the UK ban full-face coverings (incl. niqab/burqa) in public spaces by EOY2030?

Jul 23, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will Space Force get its own service academy by 2030?

Sep 1, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.45%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?

Oct 19, 2:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

57%chance

431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

58

43

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 13, 2025
Aug 13, 2025
Space
Science
ULA’s Vulcan Delivers First Space Force Mission to Geosynchronous Orbit
Authors
73
1 year ago

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