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Prediction markets for STAT
OptionProbability
29
20
10
8
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM
220110352
OptionProbability
24
22
13
8
8
6
4
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.
Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM
3.21%chance
6784562
OptionVotes
59041
3675
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM
18.6%chance
8948759
OptionVotes
12640
6410
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
65.82%chance
10045304
OptionVotes
1287
787
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.35%chance
5734209
OptionVotes
11596
8623
Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?
Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
53.3%chance
1614186
OptionVotes
11095
8929
US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028
Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM
34.52%chance
85947
OptionVotes
13772
7261
Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?
Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
47.84%chance
125581
OptionVotes
10661
9352
Manifold stats graph looks promising again before 2027?
Dec 13, 1:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.55%chance
231357
OptionVotes
1376
727
Which of these Team Fortress 2 weapons will have their stats adjusted before 2029?
Nov 17, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7595
OptionProbability
50
50
50
41
41
40
39
39
39
39
39
39
35
31
29
29
Will the Cleaner's Carbine in Team Fortress 2 get a significant stat adjustment before 2030?
Nov 10, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
32.87%chance
469
OptionVotes
143
70
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