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Prediction markets for State Street
What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Feb 28, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
15951112
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
84
83
83
82
82
80
79
79
78
77
77
77
76
76
76
75
74
73
72
72
71
71
70
70
69
69
69
69
66
65
65
64
64
64
62
62
62
61
57
57
55
55
52
50
50
50
49
48
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
44
42
40
37
37
36
35
32
32
31
29
28
27
27
27
23
22
19
18
18
17
16
16
14
14
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
3.1%chance
8225584
OptionVotes
4756
624
OptionProbability
75
57
35
21
Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?
Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM
61.64%chance
482387
OptionVotes
5267
1567
Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?
Jun 29, 6:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
11.97%chance
231149
OptionVotes
1747
843
Which sector of the US stock market (S&P 500) will perform the best in 2025?
Jan 1, 9:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5431
OptionProbability
20
17
14
11
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?
Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9395
OptionProbability
70
63
59
58
57
55
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?
Jul 9, 11:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
4382
OptionProbability
81
10
9
1
OptionVotes
205
49
Major media use 'Cultural Revolution' for US events by Sep 30, 2025?
Mar 23, 2:00 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM
16.12%chance
10178
OptionVotes
228
44
Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?
Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
72.49%chance
8160
OptionVotes
280
98
Can GPT-5 guess between a Biden and a Trump neighborhood?
Feb 29, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.6%chance
997
OptionVotes
226
211
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