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Top stories

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Authors

5

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Stills

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

350125800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2566

1866

Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025

Sep 7, 6:22 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

68.44%chance

171108781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11497

10668

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.95%chance

20848003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2656

982

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]

Jan 5, 9:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

72.12%chance

5716956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2773

1390

will people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?

Aug 18, 4:35 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

69.39%chance

445871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

942

100

Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?

Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.65%chance

625231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3906

1917

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Jul 2, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

282716

OptionProbability

AI winter

Benign superintelligence

Other

Effective international moratorium

33

27

23

17

Will Donald Trump still be president in 2030?

Dec 31, 1:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11.21%chance

181767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

466

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.29%chance

271455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

406

Will the Senate still have the ability to filibuster in the year 2032?

Apr 12, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.82%chance

381337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1873

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.95%chance

25852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2204

1770

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Tech
Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples
Authors
5
3 days ago

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