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Top stories

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Stills

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.84%chance

67268839

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5543

181

Will Amanda Askell still be a power at Anthropic, EOY 2027?

Feb 17, 4:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

238146015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.23%chance

369133315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2209

2181

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Sep 23, 8:43 AMDec 31, 9:30 AM

10193959

OptionProbability

2025-12-31 / 31st December 2025

2026-06-30 / June 30, 2026

2026-12-31 / 31st December 2026

2027-12-31 / 31st December 2027

2028-12-31 / 31st December 2028

2029-12-31 / 31st December 2029

2030-12-31 / 31st December 2030

100

63

35

22

16

8

6

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

21950798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

1107

What proportion of people born in the year X will still be alive in the year 3000?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

234200

OptionProbability

Born in 2030

Born in 2020

Born in 2010

Born in 2000

Born in 1990

Born in 1980

Born in 1970

Born in 1960

Born in 1950

20

15

13

12

10

8

7

4

2

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10078

9989

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Jul 2, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

292972

OptionProbability

AI winter

Benign superintelligence

Other

Effective international moratorium

33

28

22

17

Will Donald Trump still be president in 2030?

Dec 31, 1:23 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.11%chance

232697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

954

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.29%chance

271455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

406

Will the Senate still have the ability to filibuster in the year 2032?

Apr 12, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.23%chance

411376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2073

1847

Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?

Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.13%chance

25902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2254

1726

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 27, 2025
Aug 27, 2025
Tech
Nothing Apologizes After Stock Photos Pose as Phone 3 Camera Samples
Authors
5
7 months ago

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