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Prediction markets for Stills
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
350125800
OptionVotes
2566
1866
Will there still be Israeli hostages in Gaza, by the end of 2025
Sep 7, 6:22 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM
68.44%chance
171108781
OptionVotes
11497
10668
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
50.95%chance
20848003
OptionVotes
2656
982
Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?
Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
14533244
OptionVotes
1464
1157
Will @TobiasVyseri and I still be romantically involved at the beginning of 2026? [M$1000 subsidy]
Jan 5, 9:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
72.12%chance
5716956
OptionVotes
2773
1390
will people still mostly use AI through a textbox on a website/app in August 2027?
Aug 18, 4:35 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM
69.39%chance
445871
OptionVotes
942
100
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
Oct 27, 3:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79.65%chance
625231
OptionVotes
3906
1917
OptionProbability
33
27
23
17
OptionVotes
1013
466
In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.
Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
55.29%chance
271455
OptionVotes
1214
406
Will the Senate still have the ability to filibuster in the year 2032?
Apr 12, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.82%chance
381337
OptionVotes
2052
1873
Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?
Mar 13, 3:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.95%chance
25852
OptionVotes
2204
1770
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