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Strive Predicts Saylor’s Strategy Will Join S&P 500 Next Month
Authors
12
4 months ago
Prediction markets for Strategy
Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
25.74%chance
111841
OptionVotes
1112
522
Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?
Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
26.77%chance
181382
OptionVotes
1515
722
Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?
Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM
42.03%chance
13835
OptionVotes
1355
600
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
57.48%chance
17719
OptionVotes
1215
507
Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?
Feb 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
42%chance
2718
OptionVotes
118
85
Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
44.45%chance
25717
OptionVotes
1078
925
When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?
Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4655
OptionProbability
15
15
15
15
15
12
9
4
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?
Dec 30, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
49.67%chance
14615
OptionVotes
239
84
Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?
Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
16.55%chance
12408
OptionVotes
382
72
OptionVotes
1010
994
Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17.66%chance
3103
OptionVotes
1039
789
Bitcoin (BTC) reaches new ATH before Strategy formerly Microstrategy (MSTR) sells BTC?
Nov 6, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.13%chance
370
OptionVotes
113
88
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