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Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?
Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM
37.29%chance
2515523
OptionVotes
1146
437
OptionProbability
15
13
13
10
9
6
6
5
5
4
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2024) win Worlds in 2025?
Nov 2, 9:56 PMNov 9, 10:59 PM
40%chance
74180
OptionVotes
1225
816
Will members of the 2024 Chinese Olympic swim team be found to have been doping?
Aug 5, 7:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
40.46%chance
113661
OptionVotes
1213
824
OptionVotes
1141
752
Will FIFA announce a new national team competition before 2026?
Dec 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
17.9%chance
161682
OptionVotes
2558
610
Will a televised American Football match between teams of humanoid robots occur before 2035?
Mar 22, 5:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
33.53%chance
14431
OptionVotes
1007
959
Will the price of Earbuds in Team Fortress 2 be $13.00 or more on Jan 1st 2026 according to Marketplace.tf?
Dec 7, 8:27 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
63.76%chance
13396
OptionVotes
1325
747
Will Salt Lake City get a Major League Baseball team before 2030?
Apr 19, 1:29 AMJan 1, 7:01 AM
28.64%chance
19373
OptionVotes
1065
964
OptionVotes
1013
956
Will "UK AISI’s Alignment Team: Research Agenda" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 20, 11:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
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