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Prediction markets for Technology
Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?
Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
67.39%chance
18591740
OptionVotes
1690
319
OptionVotes
1539
1185
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
19.65%chance
9122191
OptionVotes
14513
8421
Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?
Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
47.27%chance
9916609
OptionVotes
1344
732
Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?
Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
37.05%chance
9512459
OptionVotes
1817
544
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
27.17%chance
1459535
OptionVotes
6060
4388
If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?
Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
13.02%chance
318436
OptionVotes
1072
965
2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM
21.13%chance
256169
OptionVotes
1935
518
10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
325752
OptionVotes
1335
751
Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18.81%chance
253167
OptionVotes
2077
481
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
Sep 11, 10:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.23%chance
16923
OptionVotes
1013
958
By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?
Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.85%chance
26447
OptionVotes
1006
987
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