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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

11 months ago

Prediction markets for Terrorism

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.21%chance

2710374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6659

150

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

999766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

1964

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

64.03%chance

243162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.34%chance

17858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?

May 18, 2:27 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

16672

OptionProbability

Iran

Cuba

North Korea

Syria

Afghanistan

Venezuela

Russia

Ukraine

77

74

71

51

42

37

36

17

When will we see terrorism against AI?

Apr 27, 8:52 AMDec 31, 9:51 AM

27590

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2031

2027

2028

2029

2026

65

58

58

57

47

43

26

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

19443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

125

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

274

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

22%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
China
Mexico
Law
Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk
Authors
20
11 months ago

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