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Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk
Authors
20
11 months ago
Prediction markets for Terrorism
OptionVotes
6659
150
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.94%chance
999766
OptionVotes
1980
1964
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
64.03%chance
243162
OptionVotes
130
95
OptionVotes
1091
917
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.05%chance
22850
OptionVotes
1024
951
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30%chance
20808
OptionVotes
1002
990
Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?
May 18, 2:27 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
16672
OptionProbability
77
74
71
51
42
37
36
17
OptionProbability
65
58
58
57
47
43
26
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
59%chance
19443
OptionVotes
135
125
Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
56.93%chance
11403
OptionVotes
1017
958
Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM
66.1%chance
8104
OptionVotes
335
274
A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?
Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM
22%chance
7103
OptionVotes
188
53