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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Terrorism

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.21%chance

2710374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6659

150

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.78%chance

999756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1976

1974

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60.71%chance

233152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

101

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

37.57%chance

221547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

76

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.89%chance

16848

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

19443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

125

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?

Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

63.92%chance

9264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

142

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

274

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

22%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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Aug 28, 2025
Aug 28, 2025
China
Mexico
Law
Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk
Authors
20
8 months ago

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