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Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk
Authors
20
3 months ago
Prediction markets for Terrorism
OptionVotes
9983
100
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33%chance
979631
OptionVotes
2011
1900
Antifa designated as foreign terror organization by US government before 2026?
Sep 24, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
15.13%chance
115226
OptionVotes
2368
422
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
Mar 22, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.75%chance
443492
OptionVotes
3109
596
Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?
Nov 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5.9%chance
202371
OptionVotes
2803
761
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.05%chance
22850
OptionVotes
1024
951
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
22.51%chance
12833
OptionVotes
207
51
OptionVotes
1088
919
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30%chance
20808
OptionVotes
1002
990
Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
56.93%chance
11403
OptionVotes
1017
958
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
Jan 2, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
19.96%chance
16284
OptionVotes
282
90
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?
Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
50%chance
7179
OptionVotes
177
111