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USV Leads $15 Million Bet on On-Chain Prediction Platform The Clearing Company

16 hours ago

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.49%chance

196453615

OptionVotes

YES

18400

3317

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Jan 14, 12:45 AMAug 31, 11:00 PM

1%chance

244335124

OptionVotes

YES

145234

5127

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150121228

OptionVotes

YES

10000

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.74%chance

10322518

OptionVotes

YES

11553

10348

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

May 22, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.65%chance

7315749

OptionVotes

YES

1353

751

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

40.86%chance

10413013

OptionVotes

YES

1421

887

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

19925

5019

Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer?

Feb 10, 9:50 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

15%chance

489856

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.71%chance

1398660

OptionVotes

YES

3233

2022

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

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USV Leads $15 Million Bet on On-Chain Prediction Platform The Clearing Company
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Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Latest stories

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