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Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

1 year ago

Chile

Colombia

Music

Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups

1 year ago

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

YES

1427

701

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

2.11%chance

135907

OptionVotes

YES

6803

147

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.52%chance

132287

OptionVotes

YES

2226

883

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

1107

931

Will the Harry Potter universe outlive its creator?

Jan 15, 2:36 PMJan 15, 2:30 PM

74.81%chance

9292

OptionVotes

YES

172

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

YES

267

180

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.21%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.67%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

134

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Aug 27, 8:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

62.15%chance

OptionVotes

YES

103

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Lollapalooza Chile and Colombia’s Estéreo Picnic Reveal 2026 Lineups
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1 year ago
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Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Will the Harry Potter universe outlive its creator?

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Will Touhou creator Ota Junya (ZUN) attend a convention in the United States before 2030?

Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Latest stories

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