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Prediction markets for The Creator
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
67.06%chance
177310
OptionVotes
1427
701
OptionVotes
5303
189
Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?
Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
5.49%chance
213037
OptionVotes
2050
707
Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?
Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.3%chance
132181
OptionVotes
2332
878
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?
Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM
25.25%chance
15869
OptionVotes
1107
931
OptionVotes
172
58
If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.49%chance
12146
OptionVotes
1054
966
Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?
Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
35.67%chance
467
OptionVotes
134
74
Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?
Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
37.95%chance
461
OptionVotes
128
78
Will I be the top creator on Manifold when the website shuts down?
Mar 7, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49.96%chance
543
OptionVotes
100
100
Will the person who slays me on the creator leaderboard have been an active user on the day I reached #1?
Dec 11, 6:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
43.83%chance
425
OptionVotes
113
88
Will the person who slays me on the creator leaderboard have a user creation date from before I reached #1?
Dec 11, 6:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.58%chance
320
OptionVotes
109
92
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