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Prediction markets for The Creator
Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?
Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM
67.06%chance
177310
OptionVotes
1427
701
Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?
Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
5.49%chance
213037
OptionVotes
2050
707
Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?
Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
9.94%chance
171788
OptionVotes
2481
692
Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?
Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.95%chance
121368
OptionVotes
2043
892
Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025?
Dec 24, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
78.02%chance
161039
OptionVotes
1732
657
Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?
Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM
25.25%chance
15869
OptionVotes
1107
931
Will the first serious market creator to die ensure their outstanding markets get resolved?
Nov 14, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
9.56%chance
11403
OptionVotes
1157
958
Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2025?
Feb 13, 10:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
17.08%chance
15391
OptionVotes
418
59
What will be the unique trader bonus given to Yes/No market creator at the end of 2025?
Feb 24, 2:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8262
OptionProbability
75
12
12
Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?
Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
21.01%chance
10167
OptionVotes
1099
957
If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.49%chance
12146
OptionVotes
1054
966
Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2025?
Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
31.34%chance
448
OptionVotes
148
68
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