The Creator News

Outside Lands Complaints Mount as Golden Gate Park Awaits 60,000-Person Finale

4 months ago

Chile

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3 months ago

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

YES

1427

701

Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025?

Dec 24, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.49%chance

215703

OptionVotes

YES

4274

336

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.61%chance

193788

OptionVotes

YES

4481

547

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

5.36%chance

103306

OptionVotes

YES

4202

238

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

2050

707

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6%chance

112362

OptionVotes

YES

3280

685

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

131918

OptionVotes

YES

2495

871

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

1107

931

Will the creator of this market resolve it to yes on December 31st, 2025

Oct 28, 2:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.38%chance

3620

OptionVotes

YES

1070

935

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

1054

966

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Feb 27, 6:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.95%chance

461

OptionVotes

YES

128

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.77%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

113

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Prediction markets for The Creator

Prediction markets for The Creator

Prediction markets for The Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Will the creator of this market (me) be here to resolve it on December 31st 2025?

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Will the creator of this market resolve it to yes on December 31st, 2025

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Will the first account to surpass me on the Creator leaderboard be found to be a friend or alt of BTE within 12 months?

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

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