The Defender News

Has 10,000+ articles

Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods

Content is under a free license

Contains AI-generated articles

Accessible without login

Standalone website (not just a Twitter/X feature)

Contains a "Wikipedia" article

No entry for Mechahitler

left-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

it is cringe

It's proven (within a week after release) that Musk has personally influenced at least one article (eg. manual correction, edits to the prompt for just that article, “de-biasing”, etc)

States that the race/ethnicity differences in IQ are mostly or entirely genetic

Will actually be called "Grokipedia"

Larry Sanger inserts himself into it somehow

Uses Cloudflare to defend from scrapers

Users will only be able to edit by prompting AI for changes

Has an entry for Manifold Markets

Released in 2025

Administered by a partially-human editorial board

Released in 2026

Articles written in 10+ languages

Grok will routinely check it when answering questions

Will be called Encyclopedia Galactica

Manifold likes it, according to a poll

Contains advertisements

Not released before 2030

Anyone can edit

right-wingers perceive that it is biased against them

has an official app on the Apple App Store

Uses a preexisting wiki engine or CMS

Elon Musk does NOT defend the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is NOT unblocked in China before 2026

Elon Musk does NOT defend the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is unblocked in China before 2026

Elon Musk defends the CCP in a tweet in 2024 & X is unblocked in China before 2026

A lawsuit reaches a settlement

Training data is leaked or disclosed publicly by the court

Microsoft drops its partnership with Suno

A lawsuit reaches judgment

A lawsuit reaches trial

A lawsuit is dismissed

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the plaintiff

A lawsuit expands to include Microsoft as a defendant

A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the defendant

Udio or Suno will shutdown services permanently

A Billboard Top-100 Artist testifies at trial

<= 5

13 - 17

9 - 12

18

6 - 8

NO

Yes - Contiguous United States

Yes - Pacific Territories

Yes - Hawaii and Alaska

Trevian Kutti

Misty Hampton

David Shafer

Harrison Floyd

Steve Lee

Cathy Latham

Michael Roman

Jeffrey Clark

Ray Smith III

Bob Cheeley

Shawn Still

Mark Meadows

John Eastman

Rudy Giuliani

A model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-4 for an internally or externally deployed model

METR or an equivalently credible organization judges that a tested AI system (not necessarily released) is “self-sustaining,” capable in principle to “autonomously operate indefinitely, acquire resources, and defend its existence”

A model is publicly released which scores >65% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools)

The US unemployment rate exceeds 10% for any reason

Anthropic announces that it has activated ASL-5 for an internally or externally deployed model

US Real GDP growth rate exceeds 6% (annualized) for two consecutive quarters, attributed primarily to AI

NO

NO

YES

NO