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The Defender News

    Prediction markets for The Defender

    OptionProbability

    "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

    empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

    "lower taxes"

    "defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

    "increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

    "open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

    "order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

    "end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

    "ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

    "reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

    "REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

    "stop all COVID mandates"

    "keep men out of women’s sports"

    "deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

    "more jobs for American workers"

    "deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

    "choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

    "get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

    "cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

    "strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

    "uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

    "implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

    "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

    "build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

    "surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

    "adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

    "banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

    "banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

    "bigger paychecks"

    "a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

    "enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

    "cut the number of school administrators"

    "stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

    declassify the 'Epstein files'

    "pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

    "deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

    "veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

    "increase fairness through price transparency"

    "passing a digital bill of rights"

    "get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

    "continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

    "create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

    "protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

    "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

    "firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

    "ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

    "end surprise medical billing"

    "ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

    "reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

    "reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

    "impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

    "a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

    "a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

    "implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

    "a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

    "keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"

    100

    88

    82

    74

    71

    71

    66

    63

    63

    63

    63

    58

    57

    56

    50

    50

    47

    45

    45

    44

    44

    42

    42

    42

    40

    40

    40

    40

    39

    39

    37

    36

    36

    35

    34

    31

    31

    31

    30

    27

    27

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    19

    18

    18

    17

    16

    16

    13

    11

    7

    0

    OptionProbability

    Dismissal

    Judgment in favor of defendant

    Judgment in favor of plaintiff

    Other

    74

    18

    7

    1

    Which of the following will I do first?

    Nov 3, 4:24 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM
    161324

    OptionProbability

    Get married

    Visit Africa

    Break a bone

    Defend my PhD thesis

    Own a >1000 gallon aquarium

    Win elected office

    Die

    Get sentenced to >1 year in prison

    Win a major fencing competition

    29

    19

    17

    10

    9

    7

    4

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Gukesh Dommaraju

    Fabiano Caruana

    Magnus Carlsen

    Hikaru Nakamura

    Wei Yi

    59

    35

    2

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    Juror names are not public record

    The defense calls fewer witnesses than the prosecution

    Jury sequestered for entire trial

    Trial doesn't start until 2026

    Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

    Law & Crime offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"

    Luigi Mangione changes counsel during trial

    Alternate juror is seated as a member of the Jury

    The case will be heard as a bench trial

    Brady evidence is withheld

    AUSA sanctioned

    Defense counsel sanctioned

    A motion for recusal is made

    Defendant held in contempt

    Trial is televised

    Jury is sequestered just during deliberations

    90

    83

    72

    70

    50

    50

    45

    35

    31

    31

    31

    31

    25

    20

    19

    18

    Will Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavy weight title?

    Aug 20, 7:29 AMJul 1, 5:47 PM
    59.94%chance
    9217

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    122

    82

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    124

    81

    Bullshit in physics: Albert 2015

    Oct 19, 3:01 AMOct 19, 2:53 AM
    352

    OptionProbability

    New paper(s) will be published to defend the position of David Albert.

    David Albert will publicly admit that his claim is problematic.

    Ding Jia (question creator) will publicly admit that his criticism is problematic.

    New paper(s) will be published to criticize the position of David Albert.

    39

    34

    34

    34

    OptionProbability

    2 french players in the top 5

    At least 7 PSG players nominated

    The top 3 contains players from 3 different leagues

    The top 10 contains at least 3 midfielders

    At least 6 defenders are nominated

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

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