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Prediction markets for The Defender
If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
Jan 24, 11:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
938137
OptionProbability
100
88
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
50
50
47
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
39
37
36
36
35
34
31
31
31
30
27
27
26
26
25
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
What will be the outcome of Annie Altman’s lawsuit against Sam Altman? (Altman v. Altman)
Jan 8, 8:25 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM
143811
OptionProbability
74
18
7
1
OptionProbability
29
19
17
10
9
7
4
3
2
Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?
Mar 5, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8955
OptionProbability
59
35
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
90
83
72
70
50
50
45
35
31
31
31
31
25
20
19
18
Will "Do not conquer what you cannot defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 16, 9:47 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
28.97%chance
6310
OptionVotes
1137
454
Will "Let goodness conquer all that it can defend" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 17, 3:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.37%chance
5226
OptionVotes
1130
980
Will Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavy weight title?
Aug 20, 7:29 AMJul 1, 5:47 PM
59.94%chance
9217
OptionVotes
122
82
Will Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavyweight title before 31 December 2026?
Nov 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 6:47 PM
60.43%chance
5126
OptionVotes
124
81
OptionProbability
39
34
34
34
Will "Defending Against Model Weight Exfiltration T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Dec 18, 1:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
122
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking
Jul 23, 8:37 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
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