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One Year In Office, Keir Starmer Faces Labour Dissent, May 2026 Election Risks, 61% Public Disapproval, Glasman Warns

One Year In Office, Keir Starmer Faces Labour Dissent, May 2026 Election Risks, 61% Public Disapproval, Glasman Warns

Authors

39

29 days ago

Prediction markets for The Economist

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.1%chance

455323493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

2492

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

38.22%chance

314818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

204157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2251

444

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.52%chance

292067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1836

655

What will the Economist Democracy Index of Syria be in 2025?

May 25, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21418

Which Party will the Economist endorse in the next UK General Election?

Apr 1, 11:44 AMJul 30, 10:59 PM

91414

OptionProbability

Other

Labour

No Party

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats

A coalition of some description

Reform UK

Green Party

25

18

16

12

12

11

5

2

Will Michele Boldrin (Italian economist & professor) partecipate at the next elections in Italy?

Apr 15, 5:50 PMOct 21, 10:59 PM

27.33%chance

12889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

816

What will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?

Nov 26, 6:26 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20.62%chance

5242

OptionProbability

YES

NO

480

278

If Vladimir Putin is not in power in Russia, what will Russia's democracy index be in 2026, as per the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy report?

Nov 27, 7:19 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

34.53%chance

6165

OptionProbability

NO

YES

334

319

Will any top economist author or coauthor a paper on the journal Seeds of Science?

Aug 6, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.84%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

86

Which country will be the first to go over 5 on the Economist's Democracy index

Mar 29, 10:59 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

452

OptionProbability

Iran

China

North Korea

43

31

27

Will any of the top 10 countries in The Economist’s 2025 Democracy Index have a directly elected head of government?

Mar 22, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 4, 2025
Jul 4, 2025
Britain
Politics
World
One Year In Office, Keir Starmer Faces Labour Dissent, May 2026 Election Risks, 61% Public Disapproval, Glasman Warns
Authors
39
29 days ago

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